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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

Yet this year's race is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and fun year, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still