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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could cement the party's current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd