Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
